Basic Characteristics of the Team

The main research focus of the center is prognostic research, including methodological studies, and the creation of population forecasts and model projections at national, regional, and local levels. Another key area of research is the broad application of demographic knowledge and prognostic results in practice. One of the center’s primary focuses is assessing the impact of demographic changes in Czech society on the future demand for healthcare and social services. Other long-term research areas include demographic applications related to pension system reform, waste and water management, the development of transport infrastructure, urban planning, territorial and regional development, and education across all levels.

 

Team Composition

Researchers:

  • RNDr. Boris Burcin, Ph.D. (team leader)
  • RNDr. Tomáš Kučera, CSc.
  • doc. RNDr. Luděk Šídlo, Ph.D.
  • RNDr. Kateřina Brázová, Ph.D.
  • RNDr. Martin Novák, Ph.D.
  • Mgr. Tereza Havelková

Studenti:

  • Mgr. Filip Čábela (PhD student)
  • Mgr. Lukáš Kahoun (PhD student)

 

Research Projects Conducted by CPPAD Members

  • European Projects:

    • HEROES – HEalth woRkfOrce to meet health challEngeS (European Commission, EU4H, 2023–2026, Šídlo, Burcin, Brázová)

    • Population Forecasts and Model Projections for Azerbaijan (The Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of the Population of the Azerbaijan Republic, BP Exploration (Caspian Sea) LTD and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) 2022–2023,  Kučera a Burcin) 
  • Technology Agency of the Czech Republic:
  • Charles University Grant Agency:
    • Analysis of the Movement of Healthcare Workers within the Czech Healthcare System with the Possibility of Implementing the Findings for Workforce Planning  [Analýza pohybu zdravotnických pracovníků v rámci českého zdravotnictví s možností implementace získaných poznatků při zavádění systému jejich plánování] (2024–2026, Havelková, supervised by Šídlo)
    • (Geo)demographic Aspects of Commuting for Healthcare Services in the Czech Republic [(Geo)demografické aspekty dojížďky za zdravotními službami v Česku] (2018–2021, Maláková, supervised by Šídlo)
    • Care for Seniors in the Czech Republic with Regard to Demographic Aging of Society [Péče o seniory v České republice s ohledem na demografické stárnutí společnosti] (2017–2018, supervised by Šídlo)
    • Standard and Alternative Methodological Approaches Used for the Analysis of Demographic Aging and Their Application [Standardní a alternativní metodologické postupy používané k analýze demografického stárnutí a možnosti jejich aplikace] (2017–2018, supervised by Šídlo)
    • Analysis of Morbidity in the Czech Republic Based on the Provision and Consumption of Healthcare with a Focus on Diabetes Mellitus [Analýza nemocnosti v Česku založená na poskytování a spotřebě zdravotní péče se zaměřením na diabetes mellitus] (2015–2016, supervised by Šídlo) 
    • Changes in School Facility Capacities in Connection with Population Development in Selected Municipalities of the Czech Republic [Proměny kapacit školských zařízení v souvislosti s populačním vývojem ve vybraných obcích Česka] (2015–2016, supervised by Šídlo)

Other Activities Collaborated by Center Members

  • Internet Resources for Population Studies (Burcin, Šídlo)
  • Online mapové Aplikace UNCE (http://geo-unce.natur.cuni.cz/) (Brázová)
  • Training Series for the Period 2020–2024, organized in cooperation with UNFPA EECARO and fully funded by this organization. Three courses were conducted, each in Russian and English versions: (1) CUNI and UNFPA Online Course on Forecasting Mortality and Migration, held on 1–22 and 2–23 September 2022; (2) CUNI and UNFPA Online Course on Population Forecasts and Their Application in Practice, held on 7–22 and 8–23 September 2023; (3) Practical PPF CUNI and UNFPA Course on Forecasting and Visualization of Population Data, with the Russian version held on 3–18 February 2024 (in-person) and 19 February – 10 March 2024 (online), and the English version scheduled for 9–22 November and 25 November – 18 December 2024 (Kučera, Burcin).
  • Creation of Population Forecasts and Projections (2021–2023): (1) Population forecasts for selected SO ORP for Vodohospodářský rozvoj a výstavbu, a.s., Prague; (2) Forecasts for the union of municipalities Lošbates based in Louňovice (Central Bohemia); and (3) for the Municipality of Říčany (Central Bohemia). (4) Participation in the Czech Development Cooperation project in collaboration with the UNFPA Country Office in Bosnia and Herzegovina—preparation of a demographic resilience study, including a national population forecast for Bosnia and Herzegovina (2022, Burcin, Kučera).

Detailed Description of the Center’s Activities

In recent years, team members have been involved in several projects of the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic, primarily focused on the analysis and modeling of the provision, use, and accessibility of selected outpatient health services in the Czech Republic. The obtained results are applied by a number of institutions (Ministry of Health, Ministry of Regional Development, General Health Insurance Company, professional medical societies, etc.) for the development of strategic materials for the future direction of healthcare in the Czech Republic, to reduce regional inequalities in the accessibility of healthcare services, and as a basis for grant programs or the creation of a network of contracted healthcare providers.

Currently, members of the center are engaged in the European HEROES project, where, in collaboration with the Ministry of Health, the Institute of Health Information and Statistics, and the National Centre for Nursing and Other Health Professions, they represent the Czech Republic and focus on workforce planning in healthcare and the implementation of planning processes in decision-making mechanisms.

The 15-month project “Population Forecasts and Model Projections for Azerbaijan,” prepared and implemented by the research team for the Government of the Republic of Azerbaijan, represented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of Population, aimed to improve governance at national and regional levels. The goal was to support informed decision-making through population forecasts and model projections. Running from July 2022 to October 2023, the project produced 100 sets of projections covering the entire Republic of Azerbaijan, 14 economic regions, and 85 administrative districts. Through detailed population forecasts, the project helped address key demographic challenges, enabling Azerbaijani authorities to better predict future developments and take preventive measures. The results, including 1,400 forecast variants and individual model projections, were personally presented to project partners, including sponsors BP Exploration (Caspian Sea) LTD and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), in January 2024. The project was well-received, and its results are now intensively used by the ministry and other governmental institutions in the decision-making process. It also emphasized the importance of national expertise and recommended continuous updates to forecasts to ensure long-term sustainability of population forecasting in the country. Within the framework of cooperation with UNFPA for the Eastern Europe and Central Asia region, the project became a pilot initiative for testing approaches and procedures for the potential establishment of national population forecasting systems in other countries under the UNFPA EECARO program.

Some team members have also contributed to several applied research projects focused on the creation of national, regional, and local population forecasts and model projections. These projects included a set of 15 forecasts for Uzbekistan and its regions for the UNFPA Country Office in Uzbekistan; population forecasts for selected SO ORP in the Czech Republic for Vodohospodářský rozvoj a výstavbu, a.s., Prague; forecasts for the union of municipalities Lošbates in Louňovice; and for the Municipality of Říčany. In 2022, the team also participated in a Czech Development Cooperation project, carried out in collaboration with the UNFPA Country Office in Bosnia and Herzegovina, working alongside local experts on a demographic resilience study, which included producing a population forecast as part of an initial demo-economic study.

Team members, in collaboration with students of the Master’s program in Demography, have created one of the largest electronic libraries, Internet Resources for Population Studies, which provides access to essential information sources related to demographic issues. The content of this library is regularly updated.

Under the guidance of CPPAD members, specific research areas are also addressed by doctoral students through projects of the Charles University Grant Agency, and doctoral students have also contributed to the development of the Online Mapping Application of the UNCE project.

Based on the results achieved, the team, through its members, has had or currently holds representation in several ministerial working groups and expert committees (pension reform, demographic stability, assisted reproduction, primary care reform, transport infrastructure, regional development, coal mining reduction, etc.).

However, the team's activities are not limited to the Czech Republic and domestic partners. Its representatives engage in extensive activities on the international stage as well. They collaborate on research and development projects not only with foreign research institutions but also with other entities. Their partners or clients include international organizations (UNFPA, UNDP), consulting firms (Mott MacDonald, Ernst & Young, s.r.o.), the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and various government and municipal authorities. The team's international activities are primarily focused on Eastern Europe and Central Asia, as defined by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), covering most countries in the Balkans and the post-Soviet region. They involve the production of a wide range of scientific demographic information, particularly the creation of population forecasts and derived model projections, and the application of their results, especially in state administration and development management. A significant complement to the research activities is the training and education of foreign colleagues—students, researchers, and practitioners, including decision-makers—on these topics. From 2020 to 2024, three courses were prepared in collaboration with UNFPA EECARO, focusing primarily on population forecasting.